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Attributing extreme weather to climate change

Use the filters below to explore the studies

Finding

  • Human influence found
  • No human influence found
  • Inconclusive

Type of study

  • Formal study
  • Rapid assessment
  • Trend

Impact

  • Atmosphere
  • Cold, snow & ice
  • Coral bleaching
  • Drought
  • Ecosystem function
  • Heat
  • Oceans
  • Rain & flooding
  • River flow
  • Storm
  • Sunshine
  • Wildfire
  • Compound

Year

Events

504

Global studies

Record global temperature, 2015

Global

  • Rapid study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Of that 1.05C temperature departure from pre-industrial [recorded in 2015], roughly 1.0C is due to the anthropogenic forcing, about 0.05C (0.09F) to 0.1C (0.18F) is due to El Niño and about 0.02C (0.04F) is due to higher solar activity."

World Weather Attribution. (2015)

Record global warmth, 2015

Global temperature

  • Formal study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"In 2015, record warm surface temperatures were observed for the global mean, India, and the equatorial central Pacific. CMIP5 simulations suggest that for the globe and India, anthropogenic warming was largely to blame."

Kam, J. et al., (2016) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 97 (12), S4-S8, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0138.1.

Global temperature record, 2016

Global

  • Formal study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"The findings indicate a "29‐fold increase in the likelihood of setting a record for a hot year in global temperatures in 2016 due to anthropogenic forcings."

King, A., (2017) Earth's Future, 5 (11) 1156-1168, DOI: 10.1002/2017EF000611

Record global warmth, 2016

Global

  • Formal study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"According to CMIP5 simulations, the 2016 record global warmth was only possible due to substantial centennial-scale anthropogenic warming. Natural variability made a smaller contribution to the January–December 2016 annual-mean global temperature anomaly."

Knutson, T. et al., (2018) Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 99 (1), S11-S15, doi:10.1175/BAMS -D-17-0104.1.

Global warm/extreme events, 2011-12

Global

  • Formal study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"In more than half of the 10 cases considered here anthropogenic influence results in warm events being 3 times more likely and extreme events 5 times more likely during September 2011–August 2012."

Christidis, N. & Stott, P., (2013) J. Climate, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00563.1

Global record temperature streak, 2014-16

Global

  • Formal study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find that this sequence of record‐breaking temperatures had a negligible (<0.03%) likelihood of occurrence in the absence of anthropogenic warming."

Mann, M. et al., (2017) Geophys. Res. Lett., 44 (15), 7936-7944, DOI:10.1002/2017GL074056

Global "dry spell length", 1960-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Drought
  • Insufficient data/inconclusive

"The observations indicate a weak tendency toward shorter dry spell length. However, in contrast to the intensification of heavy precipitation, models suggest that in this case the area with observational data availability is not representative for the total land area, for which the models simulate no discernible change."

Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499

Global "extremely warm daytime temperatures", 1950-99

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Anthropogenic forcings alter the regional distributions, indicating that extremely warm days have become hotter."

Christidis, N. et al., (2011) J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/2011JCLI4150.1

Global "hot" events, post-1900

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find a significant human contribution to the probability of record‐breaking global temperature events as early as the 1930s. Since then, all the last 16 record‐breaking hot years globally had an anthropogenic contribution to their probability of occurrence."

King, A. et al., (2016) GRL, 43 (7), 3438-3443 DOI:10.1002/2015GL067448

Global daily rainfall extremes, 1964-2013

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Our analysis covers the 1964–2013 period, when the global warming accelerated, and reveals…increasing trends in the frequency of daily precipitation extremes that are highly unlikely under the assumption of stationarity."

Papalexiou, S. M. & Montanari, A. (2019) Water Resources Research, 55(6): 4901-4914, doi:10.1029/2018WR024067

Global daily temperature extremes, 1901–2005

Global

  • Rapid study
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Examination of simulations with and without anthropogenic forcings provides evidence that the observed changes are more likely to be anthropogenic than nature in origin."

Li, C. et al., (2018) Scientific Reports, 8, 1007, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-19288-z

Global daily temperature extremes, 1961-2000

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Therefore, it is concluded that the influence of anthropogenic forcing has had a detectable influence on extreme temperatures that have impacts on human society and natural systems at global and regional scales."

Zwiers, F. et al., (2011) J. Climate, 10.1175/2010JCLI3908.1

Global extreme events, 1931-2016

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area."

Diffenbaugh, N. et al., (2017) PNAS, 114 (19), 4881–4886

Global extremely hot days, early 21st century

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find that most regions experience increases in the frequency and intensity of extremely hot three day periods, but anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcing changes locally can decrease these measures of heat waves in some models."

Wehner, M. et al., (2018) Weather and Climate Extremes, 20, 1-8, DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2018.03.001

Global heat extremes, 1901–2005

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"About 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times...About 75% of the moderate daily hot extremes over land are attributable to warming."

Fischer & Knutti, (2015) Nature Climate Change, 5, 560-564

Global heavy rainfall extremes, 1960-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & Flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960–2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes."

Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499

Global hot/cold days/nights, 1951-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Results confirm previous HadEX/CMIP3-based results in which anthropogenic (ANT) signals are robustly detected in the increase in global mean and northern continental regional means of the four indices of extreme temperatures."

Kim, Y-H. et al., (2016) Clim. Dyn., 46 (5–6), 1769–1782

Global increase in record rainfall events, 1981-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Our results suggest that whilst the number of rainfall record-breaking events can be related to natural multi-decadal variability over the period from 1901 to 1980, observed record-breaking rainfall events significantly increased afterwards consistent with rising temperatures."

Lehman, J. et al., (2015) Climatic Change, 132 (4), 501–515

Global rainfall extremes, 1901–2005

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We show that at the present-day warming of 0.85C about 18% of the moderate daily precipitation extremes over land are attributable to the observed temperature increase since pre-industrial times, which in turn primarily results from human influence."

Fischer, E. & Knutti, R., (2015) Nature Climate Change, 5, 560–564

Global summertime heat stress, 1973-2012

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Our analysis suggests that there has been a detectable anthropogenic increase in mean summertime heat stress since 1973, both globally and in most land regions analyzed."

Knutson, T. & PLoshay, J., (2016) Climatic Change, 138 (1–2), 25–39

Global temperature extremes, 1960-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We demonstrate that the probability distribution of observed local trends across the globe for the period 1960–2010 is clearly different to what would be expected from internal variability. We detect a distinct intensification of heavy precipitation events and hot extremes."

Fischer, E. M. & Knutti, R. (2014) Geophysical Research Letters, 41(2): 547-554, doi:10.1002/2013GL058499

Global temperature extremes, since 1950

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Comparing these observations with climate model simulations in an optimal detection analysis shows a significant human influence on patterns of change in extremely warm nights."

Christidis, N. et al., (2005) GRL, 32 (20), DOI:10.1029/2005GL023885

Global tropical cyclone activity, 1975-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Storm
  • Insufficient data/inconclusive

"We find no anthropogenic signal in annual global tropical cyclone or hurricane frequencies. But a strong signal is found in proportions of both weaker and stronger hurricanes: the proportion of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes has increased at a rate of ~25–30 % per C of global warming after accounting for analysis and observing system changes."

Holland, G. & Bruyère , C. L. (2013) Climate Dynamics, 42: 617-627, doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1713-0

Global warm nights, 1950-2003

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"A large part of the observed global‐scale trend in TN90 results from the trend in mean temperature, which has been attributed largely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas increase. This suggests that the detected global‐scale trends in the number of warm nights are at least partly anthropogenic."

Morak, S. et al., (2011) GRL, 38 (17)

Global warm/cold days/nights from 1951-2000

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"The anthropogenic signal is detected in global and northern continental means of all four indices, albeit less robustly for TXx, which is consistent with previous findings."

Min, S-K. et al., (2013) J. Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00551.1

Marine heatwaves, 1861–2100

Global

  • Trend
  • Oceans
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Today, 87 per cent of MHWs are attributable to human-induced warming, with this ratio increasing to nearly 100 per cent under any global warming scenario exceeding 2 degrees Celsius."

Froelicher, T. et al., (2018) Nature (560), 360–364

El Niño variability intensification, 1966–2016

Global

  • Trend
  • Oceans
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"[The results] imply that ENSO extremes of the last 50 years are significantly stronger than those of the pre‐industrial era in the central tropical Pacific. These records suggest that El Niño events already may be intensifying due to anthropogenic climate change."

Grothe, P. R. et al. (2019) Geophysical Research Letters, doi:10.1029/2019GL083906

Global and continental temperature extremes, 1951–2018

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Analyses that involve signals from anthropogenic and natural external forcings confirm that the anthropogenic signal can be detected over global land as a whole and for most continents in all temperature indices."

Hu, T. et al. (2020) Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ab8497

Global observed extreme precipitation, 1951-2015

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Results indicate that anthropogenic greenhouse gas influence is robustly detected in the observed intensification of extreme precipitation over the global land and most of the subregions considered."

Paik, S. et al. (2020) Geophysical Research )Letters, DOI:10.1029/2019GL086875

Global tropical cyclone frequency trends, 1980-2018

Global

  • Trend
  • Storm
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We found that external forcing (i.e., greenhouse gases, aerosols, and volcanic eruptions) played an important role in the observed TCF [Tropical Cyclone Frequency] trends since 1980."

Murakami, H. et al. (2020) PNAS, DOI:10.1073/pnas.1922500117

Marine heatwaves, 1981-2017

Global

  • Trend
  • Oceans
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We show that the occurrence probabilities of the duration, intensity, and cumulative intensity of most documented, large, and impactful MHWs have increased more than 20-fold as a result of anthropogenic climate change."

Laufkötter, C. et al. (2020) Science, DOI:10.1126/science.aba0690

Global temperature extremes, 1951-2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Our analyses show human influences on temperature extremes at the subcontinental scale."

Wang, Z. et al., (2020) Journal of the American Statistical Association, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2020.1730852

Global rainfall extremes, 1951-2014

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"An optimal fingerprinting analysis reveals detectable anthropogenic signals in the observations of these indices averaged over the globe and over most continents."

Dong, S. et al., (2020) Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1017.1

Heat-related mortality attributable to climate change

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Across all study countries, we find that 37.0% (range 20.5–76.3%) of warm-season heat-related deaths can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change and that increased mortality is evident on every continent."

Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M., (2021) Nature Climate Change, DOI:10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

Global hot extremes, 1850-2014

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"[T]hese simulations suggest that many areas of the globe — particularly in the tropics, sub-tropics, and northern-hemisphere high latitudes — have already moved into a climate where the hottest daily-, seasonal- and annual-scale conditions would not have occurred in thousands of years without anthropogenic forcings."

Diffenbaugh, N. S. & Davenport, F. V. (2021) Environmental Research Letters, DOI:/10.1088/1748-9326/ac2f1a

Global extreme temperature changes, 1951-2015

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Greenhouse gas signals are detected in isolation from other external forcings over global, continental, and several subcontinental domains especially for warm extremes, explaining most of the observed warming."

Seong, M-G. et al., (2021) Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-1023.1

Global drought frequency, duration and intensity, 1851-2005

Global

  • Trend
  • Drought
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"[W]e show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia."

Chiang, F. et a.., (2021) Nature Communications, DOI:10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w

Global extreme fire weather, 1980-2005

Global

  • Trend
  • Wildfire
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Changes to temperature and relative humidity drive the largest shifts in extreme fire weather conditions; this is particularly apparent over the Amazon, where GHGs cause a seven-fold increase by 2080."

Touma, D. et al., (2021) Nature Communications, DOI:10.1038/s41467-020-20570-w

Global increases in compound dry and hot events, 1901–2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Compound
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find anthropogenic influences have increased the risk of compound dry and hot events in large regions across the globe except for parts of Eurasia and North America."

Zhang, Y. et al., (2022) Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e0

Global extreme temperature changes, 1951-2015

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"We find anthropogenic influences have increased the risk of compound dry and hot events in large regions across the globe except for parts of Eurasia and North America."

Zhang, Y. et al., (2022) Environmental Research Letters, DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e0

Global trends in extreme 1- and 5-day rainfall, 1950-2014

Global

  • Trend
  • Rain & flooding
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"The influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme precipitation is detected over the global land area, three continental regions (the western Northern Hemisphere, western Eurasia, and eastern Eurasia), and many smaller IPCC regions."

Sun, Q. et al., (2022) Journal of Climate, DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0028.1

Rising proportion of major tropical cyclones, 1978-2017

Global

  • Trend
  • Storm
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"The proportion of major tropical cyclones to the total number of storms (category 1–5) exhibits a statistically significant multidecadal upward trend, which is attributed to a global sea surface warming."

Katz, Y. A. & Biem, A., (2022) Communications in Nonlinear Science and Numerical Simulation, DOI:10.1016/j.cnsns.2021.106202

Global temperature extremes, 1951–2010

Global

  • Trend
  • Heat
  • More severe or more likely to occur

"Our analyses show human influences on temperature extremes at the subcontinental scale."

Wang, Z. et al., (2020) Journal of the American Statistical Association, DOI:10.1080/01621459.2020.1730852

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